Ora aproximativă a evenimentului 02.48Z. (04.48 ora României)
Ori la acea oră eram online chiar pe flight radar.
La ora 03.51 chiar luasem o captură de ecran a spațiului aerian al României,amuzat fiind să surprind spațiul aerian al României fără nici o aeronavă.
Data și ora din dreapta jos sunt clare. 08.01.2020 ora 03.51.
Dar ce-i mai interesant că anterior acestei capturi am stat cam vreo oră pe spațiul aerian al Iranului și chiar mai mult, am stat cu zoom mărit EXACT pe aeroportul din Teheran.
(am ajuns acolo din plictiseală, în seara zilei anterioare, monitorizând permanent track-ul unei aeronave a Iran Air de la Londra la Teheran, prezentă între 21.30 - 22.00 EET în spațiul aerian al României și am rămas pe Aeroportul din Teheran, simțind în pishuleț că ceva... trebuie să bubuie pe acolo!).
Pe asta am ratat-o!
Dar las că al'dată tot prind Io* în direct, „in real time”, un crash dintr-ăla... spectaculos, cu mațe atârnate prin copaci și multe, multe mortăciuni carbonizate împrășchiate prin brazda patriei.
Poate o să fie vreun wizzair, n-ai văzut? Că-n ultima vreme wizzair a cam început să producă incidente și evenimente care, dacă acum sunt minore, s-ar putea să se acumuleze în timp și să se agraveze.
link înregistrare video a prăbușirii UIA PS752
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRc31DTStwA&feature=emb_logo
(hmmm! 3 explozii consecutive? una în aer, a doua la mică altitudine înainte de prăbușire și a treia - explozia finală la contactul cu solul?)
Din primele date apărute pe agențiile de presă se pare că transponderul aeronavei a încetat să mai transmită cu vreo 4 minute înainte de prăbușire - 02.44 conform playback-ului - iar crash site-ul se află cam la 10 mile nautice EST de locul ultimei transmisii a transponderului, ceea ce confirmă faptul că aeronava era pe un curs de întoarcere către aeroport.
În mod bizar, piloții aeronavei NU AU TRANSMIS nici un semnal de urgență sau altceva care să semnaleze apariția unor probleme la bord.)
Așadar, înregistrarea martorului ocular reprezintă faza finală a zborului, în care avionul este pe un curs către sud-est, în tentativa de a reveni la aeroport.
-------------------------------
Update 1:
navigând pe diferite site-uri de specialitate și ale unor posturi de știri credibile, nu poate să nu surprindă multitudinea imaginilor ce prezintă fragmente ale avionului având găuri ATIPICE unei prăbușiri cauzate de defecțiuni tehnice.
Aceste găuri, cu specific de tip șrapnel, nu pot proveni decât de la o singură cauză: sursă externă.
Acuma, care or fi generatorii sursei externe - iranienii, americanii, terroriștii, marțienii - deja nu mai contează.
Nu este nevoie să fii investigator NTSB să afirmi cu certitudine că aceste găuri sunt totalmente atipice unui crash bazat pe defecțiuni tehnice.
Seamănă a năibii cu borțile din fuzelajul Malaysian MH17 doborât deasupra Ucrainei.
Cea mai edificatoare probă a penetrării aeronavei cu obiecte externe este dovedită de 2 imagini ale stabilizatorului vertical.
Update 2:
Pepita de aur (Golden nugget)
„Iranian social media released footage of suspicious wreckage that was founded nearly of passenger jet crash place.
Suspicious wreckage found at Ukraine plane crash impact site appears to be the nose cone section and control fins of 9M331 surface-to-air missile.
It is employed by the Russian-made Tor-M1 mobile air defense system and features a semi-automatic command to line of sight (SACLOS) guidance system.
This system currently in service of the Iranian military deployed at a military base near the crash site.”
sursa: defence-blog
Deci TOR- M1 short-range surface-to-air missile system este talharul.
Produs de ruși și importat de iranieni.
Dacă la Malaysian MH-17 a fost BUK-M1, acum văd că e vorba de Tor.
Să mai zică careva că rușii nu fac marafeturi acătării, nu ca știfturile alea ruginite ale americanișilor, care fac pârț și cad în capul oaminilor cinstiți și sărmani.
Auzi, bre, că cea de-a doua generație de SAM Tor-M2 a atins o rată a interceptărilor de ... 100%.
UAU!
Bun, dar exact ca în cazul MH17, nu cine a produs racheta sol-aer e esențial ci întrebarea întrebătoare de baraj este: CINE A APĂSAT PE LAUNCH BUTTON ?
Iranienii într-o impardonabilă eroare?
Americanișul, într-o standard operațiune „false flag”, soră semantică și metodologică cu „maskirovka” russească?
=======================================================================
Update 3: după fragmentul video prezentat pe Aviation Herald, a apărut un altul care surprinde momentul lovirii avionului de o rachetă.
Newsy + Bellingcat: Annotated Video Showing Apparent Shoot-Down Of Flight PS752
sursa video:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2020/01/09/video-apparently-showing-flight-ps572-missile-strike-geolocated-to-iranian-suburb/
și diagrama locului identificat al martorului precum și zona prezumată a impactului, calculată pe baza diferenței de propagare a imaginii / sunetului
=======================================================================
Hai să mă bag și Io* în seamă pe Aviation Herald:
Căci, căutând o noapte întreagă care sunt datele exacte transmise de transponderul PS752 până în momentul întreruperii, pentru a stabili cert ultima transmisie a transponderului, după ce am identificat cert locul prăbușirii, după ce am găsit coordonatele geografice ale DVOR-DME Imam Khameini Airport (IKA), după ce am găsit hărțile standard de apropiere și depărtare, măsurând cu rigla Google Earth rezultă că pilotul PS752 a început manevra de întoarcere la dreapta la ora 02.44.17Z.
Până la acea oră a avut un head de 289.
Acolo începe headingul 290 și se sfârșește cu ultimul heading de 312 grade.
Măsurând distanța dintre locul începerii manevrei și DVOR-DME IKA rezultă că a început întoarcerea la exact 10,54 mile de DME.
Ori harta standard arată că această acțiune se procedează la 17 mile de DME (17 DME IKA)
În atare condiții se poate enunța o ipoteză veridică:
În nord-vestul aeroportului din Teheran, după cum se poate observa pe Google Earth, este full de unități militare.
În seara zilei precedente - 7 ian. 2019, au fost lansate cele 22 de rachete iraniene împotriva obiectivelor americane din Iraq.
După o noapte întreagă de surescitare, oboseală și stres, așteptându-se probabil să fie atacați drept reacție la cele 22 de rachete lansate, iranienii au intrat exact în acea psihoză paranoidă în care, de exemplu, erau forțele armate române în 22 dec. 1989: acel moment de iraționalitate pură în care nu mai știi cine este amic și cine este inamic, ce este normal și ce este anormal ca activitate observabilă, în care percepția evenimentelor înconjurătoare se efectuează după cu totul alți senzori decât cei „de pe timp de pace”.
În atare condiții psihologice, avionul ucrainean decolează ca de obicei.
Probabil tot ca de obicei, controllerul iranian îi permite heading to PAROT waypoint, pentru a-l scoate cât mai repede din zona capitalei iraniene.
Însă, pentru mințile întunecate de psihoză și teamă ale militarilor de la sol, un avion care se îndreaptă mult prea devreme spre amplasamentul lor, virând evident către obiectivele lor militare, aflat la o altitudine atât de mică (6000 de picioare = aprox. 2000 de metri), li s-o fi părut a fi inamic.
De aici în continuare nu mai e nimic de interpretat, rațiunea dispărând în totalitate.
Un deget fremătând pe butonul de lansare al unei instalații SAM Tor-1M, de producție rusească dar importată de Iran și aflată în dotarea FAA iraniene.
ATÂT!
(continuare pe The Aviation Herald)
By Edelweiss on Friday, Jan 10th 2020 15:13Z
@pilotnico
quote
„Aren't there airplanes flying on a regular basis?”
I expressed the same concern last night:
”why did PS752 get vector to the right so early, after only 10 miles from DVOR-DME IKA?”
If I read this site it is to search for and receive credible information coming from professionals in the field.
But it seems that this site is full of enthusiastic fans of the exaggerated discussion of theisms irrelevant to the case.
So, I come back:
Why PS752 was vectored so fast from head 289 to head 312?
(10,55 nm from DME IKA).
PS 752 granular CSV file:
2020-01-08 02:44:17Z.796,0x508377,35.46024,51.00204,6025,5510,275,290
35.46024 N = 35°27'36.86"N
51.00204 E = 51° 0'7.34"E
This shortcut procedure, combined with the state of arousal, fatigue and stress accumulated in the evening of January 7 and the night between January 7 and 8, can create the factual and psychological context that led to this catastrophe?
@Edelweiss
By reader on Friday, Jan 10th 2020 15:53Z
I think, you are incorrect in saying that the plane was vectored "early" to the right. You are right, that PS-752 the day before continued straight longer, however PS-752 on January 4th was also cleared for a right turn at pretty much the same location and followed the same trajectory as on the accident flight.
The only difference in the two trajectories is that the accident flight was delayed for departure by half an hour but that is all I see from the data.
By Edelweiss on Friday, Jan 10th 2020 17:24Z
I propose to study the reference points of flight PS752 from January 6, 2020. You will have a very big surprise, a surprise that is in full agreement with the Standard departure chart.
Departure at heading 289,
(35°31'0.74"N 50°46'52.39"E) 1st turning point to right to heading 306 at 23.59 nm DME IKA,
(35°32'25.90"N 50°44'14.77"E) 2nd turning point to head 316 at 26,45 nm DME IKA and
(approximately 36°13'45.86"N 49°55'25.15"E) 3rd turning point to left after PAROT way point.
So unfortunate error of (probably) tower controller to admit the turn to the right too early it may be a secondary but essential circumstance of this aviation tragedy.
Look over what area the aircraft was redirected too fast?
Over that area full of military units and military objectives.
Military objectives whose personnel were already after a night of stress, fatigue and anguish of an imminent attack.
By 727driver on Friday, Jan 10th 2020 17:34Z
Thx, indeed a very interesting observation.
By Edelweiss on Friday, Jan 10th 2020 18:09Z
With pleasure.
At this point I remember the words of NTSB investigator Greg Feith: never an aircrash is caused by a single cause. There is always a combination of circumstances that trigger the tragedy.
The cause of the PS752 crash is already evident:
(politically correct) deflagration of a
I brought to your attention an essential detail, which can justify that subjective component of the catastrophe.
The departure mode of the PS752 is a bizarre mix between the standard departure chart AD 2 OIIE SID 1-5:
PAROT 3G DEP: DEP RWY 29L/R – After Take off turn left climb on RDL 285 up to 17 DME (RDL316 FM RUS VOR) then turn right to intercept RDL 311 FM RUS VOR to PAROT and climb to cleared level.
PAROT 2H DEP: DEP RWY 29L/R – After take off turn right to intercept RDL 305 to PAROT and climb to cleared level.
By Edelweiss on Friday, Jan 10th 2020 18:18Z
Instead of "body" will be read ”device”
By Edelweiss on Friday, Jan 10th 2020 23:28Z
2 ”interesting” sites at 3.6 - 5.4 miles northwest of the presumed position of the hitted airplane in video no. 2
Google Earth:
35°33'43.96"N 50°53'55.54"E
35°35'21.24"N 50°53'33.82"E
The second landmark is more than interesting with the access gate, the guardrails along the fences, the fighting technique visible in different points but especially in the back, where there are those excavated sites and those underground access gates.
Military objectives within the range of SAM Tor-M1 - 7.5 nm = 12 km.
Towards ... the northwest of ”estimated area of impact”
By Mark on Friday, Jan 10th 2020 23:49Z
@Edelweiss The point at which the aircraft turns North looks to vary quite a bit looking at the ADS-B from the 4th, 6th and 8th. It's the same plane with all three flights.
By Edelweiss on Saturday, Jan 11th 2020 00:56Z
@ Mark
January 8 is exactly the same departure trajectory as January 4.
The position of the last transmission of the transponder is exactly on the route at heading 312 (311) to PAROT.
But I think this is a shortcut departure from the IKA.
In the PS752 cockpit there were 3 pilots: captain, FO and another captain instructor.
The only one responsible for this vectorization can only be the tower / approach controller.
This trajectory-shortcut fly over those bizarre objectives, the coordinates of which I have posted previously.
My unprofessionally verdict: a double error:
an careless controller
&
a finger trembling on the launch button, panicked by the approach of an aircraft at low altitude and on the direct route.
By Tom on Friday, Jan 10th 2020 23:55Z
Question for anyone that knows: Can the data on the recorders be altered in any way other than complete erasure?
By Edelweiss on Saturday, Jan 11th 2020 01:38Z
@Tom
Yes!
Ask captain Michel Asseline - Air France 296 Flight - how CVR and FDR data can be manipulated. :)
„The TV documentary series Mayday also reports claims in Season 9 Episode 3 that the flight recorder might have been tampered with and indicated that four seconds had been cut from the tape; this was shown by playing back a control tower tape and comparing it to the remaining tape. The pilot argues that he attempted to apply thrust earlier than indicated in the flight recorder data.”
&
„It was also claimed by the Institute of Police Forensic Evidence and Criminology, based in Lausanne, Switzerland, that the flight data recorders may have been switched and were not the original ones in the aeroplane.”
===============================
By baned Edelweiss on Saturday, Jan 11th 2020 13:02Z
RADAR DEPARTURE: on RWY heading climb to maintain 7000 ’ , EXPECT RADAR vectors.
(or departure end of runway climb on runway heading maintain 7.000 feet, contact Mehrabad radar 119.7 when airborne expect radar vectors).
It is not a valid argument that other aircraft followed the same departure procedure. Analyze the departure of the PS752 from January 6 and you will have a big surprise.
Anyway, my opinion is that the Teheran tower controller or Mehrabad ATC prematurely vectored the aircraft to head 312: only 5900 ft and only 10.55 nm DME IKA.
This detail is essential to understanding the confusion of AA forces.
remembrance
By Edelweiss on Saturday, Jan 11th 2020 15:16Z
”This shortcut procedure, combined with the state of arousal, fatigue and stress accumulated in the evening of January 7 and the night between January 7 and 8, can create the factual and psychological context that led to this catastrophe?”
„So unfortunate error of (probably) tower controller to admit the turn to the right too early it may be a secondary but essential circumstance of this aviation tragedy.
Look over what area the aircraft was redirected too fast?
Over that area full of military units and military objectives.
Military objectives whose personnel were already after a night of stress, fatigue and anguish of an imminent attack.”
„I remember the words of NTSB investigator Greg Feith: never an aircrash is caused by a single cause. There is always a combination of circumstances that trigger the tragedy.”
The Statement of IAF confirmed the factual and psychological ensemble that led to this tragedy.
@Edelweiss
By 727driver on Saturday, Jan 11th 2020 15:25Z
Yeah, looks like another example of swiss cheese model.
- off track
- shift change of militaries at 06:00 LT
- not monitoring TWR FREQU ?
exactly that fateful accumulation of circumstances
By Edelweiss on Saturday, Jan 11th 2020 15:35Z
Exactly!
Also add vectorization under standard altitude (7000).
Today we examined some Tehran radar departures and when they were vectored:
Jan 11 20
Radar departures and vector turning right at…
Mahan Air IRM112: 7200 ft
Turkish THY8WC: 7200 ft
Iran Air IRA733: 7525 ft
Iran Air IR751: 7425 ft
Qeshm Airlines QSM2273: 7.850 ft (initial vectored a little bit to the left)
PS752 was vectored to teh right at 5.900 ft.
So, it is more than justified the phrases: „TAKING THE SHAPE AND ALTITUDE OF A HOSTILE TARGET” and „such SENSITIVE AND CRITICAL CIRCUMSTANCES”.
So many circumstantial elements were gathered as if we were reviewing the Tenerife crash - The Crash of Century
Edelweiss - accurately and open source
By 727driver on Saturday, Jan 11th 2020 22:17Z
Very well observed.
Nowadays the world is a global village....;)
By Edelweiss on Saturday, Jan 11th 2020 22:53Z
727 driver believe me I haven't read Christo at all.
I didn't even have time.
We wasted 2 whole nights haunting Google earth on a circle sector from north to west, with a radius equal to the TOR-M1 official range: 7.5 miles = 12 km.
I have seen homes, mining, refineries, to reach me for the next 30 years.
The only interesting landmarks were those communicated yesterday evening, after it was evident that there is a certain military objective for sure: quard towers visible after the shadow,military technique, solid fences, access routes, gates to underground shelters and especially those unmistakable sites for military technique dug into the ground.
My posting was yesterday evening at 23.28 UTC.
Today I see that Christo appears around noon and specifies that the presumed place of launch is not where he calculated he is 3 km further northwest.
Exactly the second landmark indicated by me.
Nice work, bro Christo!
By (anonymous) on Sunday, Jan 12th 2020 07:33Z
Is the turning instruction from ATC partly responsible for this tragedy?
@Question
By Edelweiss on Sunday, Jan 12th 2020 13:29Z
YES!
I think so.
An essential factor in this tragedy is the neglected vectorization performed by ATC.
This is the hypothesis that I have tried to promote on attention, with objectivity and decency.
Keep track of my posts from the past days in the AHerald archive.
The data are unquestionable: a departure from the Tehran airport seems to be a typical Radar departure.
Although the instructions require 7000 feet (FL070) as the cleared level, at which the plane can be vectorized to PARROT waypoint, PS752 was vectored to the PAROT at only 5900 feet.
PREMATURELY.
Otherwise the entire climb up path of the PS752 suggests a slow climbing.
Compared to other aircraft taking off on the same routes, differences of 1500 feet less in the turning point to the right and 2000 feet less at the point of the last transponder transmission.
Maybe this premature vectorization, along with the altitude below radar departure instructions, justifies that expression in the IAF staff statement
”TAKING THE SHAPE AND ALTITUDE OF A HOSTILE TARGET”
We can somehow know which is the automatic target selection algorithm implemented in the Tor-M1 system?
If there is somewhere there is a "line" of software that is cynically indifferent:
”Each radar spot at an altitude of less than 7,000 feet can be a presumptive enemy”
„Each target below 7000 feet, located on a course directly to the site of the Air Defence facility, is highly likely to trigger an attack on the base.”
We can't know how "thinks" that little tin-mind in Tor-M1? Not!
But we know for sure that the radar clearance instructions provide for a mandatory (mandatory) level: 7.000 ft.
And we also know that someone - IKA Tower Controller or Mehrabad ATController - vectorized the aircraft in violation of the mandatory requirements of the departure instructions.
PS752 was TOO LOW.
By Edelweiss on Sunday, Jan 12th 2020 14:04Z
Based on the good understanding we have created with each other, I propose a credible point of view:
No, the military isn’t unprofessional, but they are as unbelieving as Thomas (incredulous, distrustful, suspicious, mistrustful).
For them a callsign is nothing more than a presentation that can be a mask, which can be misleading.
There are countless examples of military operations in which jetfighters or aircrafts carrying troops were hidden under callsigns of civilian planes or were in the radar shadow of some civilian aircraft.
e.g.
- israeli forces intervened at the airport in Entebbe - Uganda in 1976
- american surveillance aircraft under the radar shadow of KAL007
- ukrainian Sukhoi who maneuvered in the immediate vicinity (shadow) of MH17
And so on.
So for a military man from an anti-aircraft military objective the data received from the sources mentioned by you may be unbelievable data.
His experience and military training requires him to be circumspect and to rely only on his own devices and technique.
For the military man with his finger on the release button, a callsign has the same theoretical value as John Doe or Jane Doe.
Interesting point of reference, isn't?
De aici în continuare, cele mai prețioase comentarii au fost cenzurate de un bou austriac. Plus cenzurate gârlă dintre comentariile zilei de 11, în dialog cu 727driver, Werner Huss sau Ziberov.
Despre cel mai prețios comentariu cenzurat, vezi postarea The success of halberd and robbery journalism
Măsurători pe hartă:
Altitudinea PS752 la vectorizarea spre head 312: doar 5.900 de picioare.
Spre comparație, altitudinea altor aeronave, vectorizate în ziua de 11 ian. 2020:
Jan 11 20
Radar departures and vector turning right at…
Mahan Air IRM112: 7200 ft
Turkish THY8WC: 7200 ft
Iran Air IRA733: 7525 ft
Iran Air IR751: 7425 ft
Qeshm Airlines QSM2273: 7.850 ft (initial vectored a little bit to the left)
3- Under such SENSITIVE AND CRITICAL CIRCUMSTANCES, the Ukrainian airline’s Flight PS752 took off from Imam Khomeini Airport, and when turning around, it approached a sensitive military site of the IRGC, TAKING THE SHAPE AND ALTITUDE OF A HOSTILE TARGET. In such conditions, due to human error and in an unintentional move, the airplane was hit [by the Air Defence], which caused the martyrdom of a number of our compatriots and the deaths of several foreign nationals.”
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arhivă
PS752-Granular-Data
Evoluția constantă a principalilor parametri - altitudine și viteză - poate conduce la ideea că locul ultimei transmisii a transponderului este chiar LOCUL LOVIRII AERONAVEI DE ACEL CORP STRĂIN (ca să grăiesc political correct).
Acuma, luând în considerare caracteristica de short range a Tor-M1 - poate lovi ținte de la 12 km (7,5 mile), aflate la altitudini de 6.000 de metri (20.000 de picioare), se poate trage un cerc cu raza de hai să zicem 15 km în jurul locului ultimei transmisii a transponderului și se poate căuta... talharul.
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